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Fire Umbra GuardianTier 2
at Steamship Games RDO Store Championship
decks
1
(7.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
1-3-0
overall winrate
25.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.6%
avg ELO -0.2 per match
expected value
45.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1102
· median 1102
· range 1102–1102
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1102
Q1 1210
Q3 1376
1538
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Oblation | 14.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 14.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.0% | +3.1 |
| Wind Chess | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.7% | -2.1 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.7% | -2.0 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Umbra Guardian decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
